Fan Shenggen, Chair Professor, China Agricultural University
This is an English translation. The original is published on China Daily.
Global food security could be threatened. But the threat is not from a shortage of food supplies, but from panic export bans by governments and panic buying by people. Novel coronavirus behavior, especially the panic behavior caused by the new coronavirus pandemic, may lead to food crisis, making vulnerable groups of poverty, hunger and malnutrition more vulnerable.
Although China has largely controlled the spread of the virus in its own country, the outbreak is still intensifying. In few countries, the number of confirmed cases and deaths has stopped rising. Now, Europe - especially Italy, Spain and Germany - and the United States have become the new centers of the pandemic.
Global supply and sufficient inventory in China
So far, we have not found a global food shortage or a sharp rise in prices. FAO estimates that global grain production last year was 2.719 billion tons, an increase of nearly 62 million tons (2.3%) over 2018 and 4.7 million tons over February's forecast.
Since the last report in February, global crude grain production in 2019 has been estimated to have increased by 5 million tons to 1444 million tons, an increase of 2.4% over 2018. FAO data also show that grain prices fell by 0.9 per cent between January and February, due to a sufficient supply of wheat and a decline in feed demand, despite rising rice prices due to strong demand in the Far East and East Africa.
Last year, China's grain harvest reached 664 million tons, an increase of 0.9% over 2018, with imports less than 5% of its demand. In addition, China has sufficient rice and wheat stocks, and the government has taken a number of measures to ensure that spring sowing is not affected by the epidemic. In the short term, the food supply is safe. But in the medium to long term, there is a need to focus on animal husbandry and the import of soybeans and meat.
More and more import and export bans have caused panic
However, with the rapid spread of the new coronavirus in Africa, South Asia and Latin America, the situation could change dramatically. Many countries in these regions are already fighting hunger and malnutrition, with nearly 150 million children among the more than 820 million hungry, stunted by a lack of adequate food and nutrition. In addition, desert locusts and autumn armyworms further threaten food production in Africa and parts of Asia.
The most worrying factors are the outbreak of coronavirus, the panic behavior of consumers and national governments. Many consumers have started to store food and other daily necessities. Due to restrictions on the flow of people and goods, the supply chain was unable to meet the sudden and substantial rise in demand. As a result, the prices of some local markets rose.
However, the biggest risk posed by the panic ban on food exports on a global scale is that it may destroy the global food trade and market on a large scale. For example, Kazakhstan, one of the world's largest wheat flour exporters, has banned not only wheat flour, but also carrots, sugar, potatoes and other products. Serbia banned the export of sunflower oil and other commodities. Russia said it was opening the door to the ban, saying it was assessing the situation on a weekly basis. Vietnam has begun to restrict rice exports.
Panic hurts the vulnerable more than anyone else
The food price crisis in 2008 has provided us with valuable lessons. The food price crisis caused by the drought in Australia and Argentina prompted different countries to adopt different policies to restrict food exports. For example, although there is no shortage of rice, driven by panic, many countries impose higher tax rates on rice exports or completely ban rice exports. As a result, the price of rice doubled in the global market in six months, leading to a serious disruption of rice trade and a food price crisis.
Another example is the outbreak of Ebola virus in three West African countries, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. Because the flow of people and vehicles is limited, local farmers can not buy basic agricultural materials or sell their agricultural products. Therefore, the interruption of domestic supply and demand relationship makes the price of urban areas rise. Because food cannot be delivered to schools, the school's meal and nutrition plans are also affected.
More importantly, the number of hungry people is likely to increase again this year, as closures and restrictions on movement of people and traffic have reduced investment and labor in agriculture, leading to a decline in food production and supply. In addition, the slowdown in economic growth indirectly affects the food security of millions of people.
According to the International Monetary Fund, although world economic output will recover in 2021, the global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 may be more serious than that caused by the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. A study by the International Food Policy Research Institute shows that for every one percentage point decline in the global economy, the number of poor people (i.e. the number of food insecure people) will increase by 2%, i.e. 14 million. The most affected regional poverty will be Africa.
How to stop panic and prevent food crisis
The new coronavirus is still spreading in many parts of the world and it is difficult to say when it will be completely contained. Therefore, in order to ensure food security for all, urgent actions need to be taken globally and nationally, respectively.
First, while global supply is abundant and stable, supply and demand imbalances at the local level can still lead to price increases and market volatility. As a result, global, national and local food prices and markets need to be closely monitored. In addition, transparent information dissemination will ensure the smooth operation of the market, the government can better manage the food market, people will not panic, farmers can make reasonable production decisions, and consumers will not hoard food. It's also important to prevent wild speculation in the stock and commodity markets.
Secondly, it is necessary to ensure that open distribution channels are maintained to ensure food production in the next season. Adequate food supply depends on whether farmers have input (seeds, livestock feed, fertilizers and pesticides) and labor before agricultural production activities start. Without proper arrangements, disruption of road transport, restrictions on population movements (including migrant workers), urban closures and quarantine measures will have a significant impact on agricultural production. China has created "green corridors" and given incentives to ensure that key inputs are made available to agricultural producers to ensure agricultural production and the supply of fresh food. Ensure that all components of the food supply chain (including transport, processing) are effectively wholesale and retail. Modern technologies such as communication services, online platforms and delivery services can greatly improve efficiency while ensuring a secure social distance.
Provide the best protection for vulnerable groups
Third, in this food crisis, the most affected high-risk groups need the greatest protection. Novel coronavirus, which is a disaster for the vulnerable communities, will be reduced by the sudden drop in income and the sudden collapse of daily income, or the collapse of the daily food supply network. This will reduce their ability to resist such crises as new coronavirus, increase the risk of loss of life and outbreak of disease. Therefore, the government should expand the social safety net, and other stakeholders must mobilize the necessary resources to ensure that everyone has adequate food security.
Where there is no safety net or other support mechanism, public health interventions must be calibrated to protect people in extreme poverty. In some countries, free school meals, food distribution systems and food banks play a crucial role in food security, so a way must be found to ensure that those who rely on such plans and systems continue to receive food support.
Fourth, the government also needs to increase public spending and introduce active policies, giving priority to health, food and food production. The pandemic is changing the way they spend and investing in health care systems so that they can better respond to the epidemic, which has become a global priority. Therefore, the authorities should urgently take emergency support measures to ensure that even the most vulnerable parts of society have access to food.
Call for global cooperation
The authorities should also take measures to promote the smooth development of Global trade and use international markets as an important tool to ensure food supply. International organizations, such as WTO, FAO, the world bank and the International Monetary Fund, must call on and demand that all countries not implement trade protectionism policies under the pretext of coronavirus pandemic.
In addition, United Nations agencies, multilateral development banks, donors and civil society must strengthen and make substantial financial and other resources available to support countries that lack the resources to respond appropriately to crises. The aim of such support should be to promote the health systems of these countries and to make their food systems more resilient so that they can prevent the onset of a food security crisis and create a greater humanitarian disaster.
(source: let me just say two sentences about wechat official account and China Daily)