2020 special issue of school day
Climate prediction system version 1.0 of Nanjing University of Information Engineering
Author: he Jiaying, Wu Jiye, Luo Jingjia
abstract
Nanjing University of information technology climate prediction system version 1.0 (NUIST cfs1.0) is based on the sintex-f model of Japan's Marine Science and Development Agency (JAMSTEC), which can realize the seasonal annual prediction of global climate anomalies. The evaluation of the test results of the past 40 years shows that the prediction system has good prediction skills for SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, and the system can advance 1.5 ~ 2 A makes a skillful prediction of ENSO (nino3.4 index) (i.e. the correlation number reaches 0.5), and can also make a better prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) one or two seasons in advance, showing a good prediction skill of the main tropical climate signals. However, similar to all the dynamic model prediction systems at home and abroad, there are still some deficiencies in the prediction of climate anomalies in East Asia. Considering the strong influence of ENSO on the climate anomaly in East Asia, this paper attempts to remove the systematic deviation related to ENSO prediction to preliminarily correct the prediction results of summer temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly percentage in East Asia. The results before and after the correction show that this simple correction method is helpful to improve the prediction accuracy of climate anomalies in China. At the same time, the real-time prediction results of temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly percentage in summer 2019 are selected as an example for analysis. It is found that the correction can provide some technical improvement, but there is still a large deviation compared with the observation results, which needs to be improved in the future work. In addition, the paper also preliminarily evaluates the climate prediction techniques of NUIST cfs1.0 for winter and spring in China, and provides the real-time prediction results of 2019 / 2020 winter and 2020 spring after simple revision.
Key word
Climate prediction system of Nanxin University; climate model; climate prediction; correction of prediction results
Corresponding author: Luo Jingjia, national distinguished professor of China
Luo Jingjia, male, national distinguished professor of China, Jiangsu Province "entrepreneurship and innovation talents".
He is mainly engaged in climate dynamics, tropical air sea interaction, development and improvement of global climate model, theory and method of climate prediction and application of climate society, and has made many international advanced achievements. So far, more than 110 international papers have been published, including nature, science, PNAs and other world-class journals. The total number of citations of all articles counted by Google Scholar exceeds 8900, and the global media has reported its research results for more than 100 times. He has won the "Young Scientist Award" of the Ministry of education, culture, sports, science and technology of the Japanese government and the "research and development Merit Award" of the Japanese marine research and development institution, etc.
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Journal of Atmospheric Science
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