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Recently, Luo Yunbo, Professor of the school of food science and nutrition engineering, China Agricultural University, took "thinking about the future development trend of the food industry in the post epidemic era" as the theme, and online discussed "food consumption characteristics during the epidemic", "main impact of the epidemic on production enterprises", "opportunities and development of the food industry" through the "Wal Mart new trend series lectures" platform Share and exchange topics with industry people.
New consumption habits guide the industry
Luo Yunbo believes that the outbreak of the epidemic has brought impact and changes to all walks of life. In terms of the food industry, the obvious changes that can be observed are as follows: consumers pay more attention to the shelf life of food due to the need to purchase food for a certain amount of storage; Convenience food and frozen food have become the first choice of "war ready" rations. According to the data of ecdataway, the e-commerce big data service organization, the sales of frozen food have skyrocketed in just one month from January 14 to February 20. Tmall data shows that the total sales of instant noodles have increased 57% year on year, dumpling wonton has increased 78%, instant hot pot has increased 144%, and meat products have increased 264%; Due to the demand of consumers for improving immunity, some health food is popular; it is necessary to eat agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables, meat, eggs and milk. More consumers begin to realize that agricultural products can improve the quality and nutrition of diet more than processed food. At the same time, in consideration of hygiene and convenience, the demand for clean food has increased substantially; the sales of leisure food has increased substantially, while the sales of liquor, condiment and other categories have declined; the catering industry has been hit hard; the sales of physical stores have declined, while the sales of e-commerce and express delivery have increased substantially. In conclusion, in the face of the epidemic, consumers are more rational in choosing food.
Through these phenomena, the industry can see the change of consumption trend: first, consumers begin to realize that their own immunity is the most effective means to protect themselves, so the demand for healthy food, especially for immune enhancing food, including young people, is rising. It can be predicted that in the future, consumers will pay more attention to health food and functional food, and correctly understand them. Second, the concept of consumption has changed. After the epidemic, people began to quit smoking, control the consumption of spicy, hot and other foods, and taste orientation gave way to health orientation. Third, the demand for food quality is higher, and price orientation gives way to quality orientation.
Epidemic situation tests the survival ability of enterprises
Before the outbreak, the scale, production capacity, sales volume and capital of the food production enterprises and even the whole industry may be the most concern of the enterprises. After the outbreak, more and more enterprises are realizing that "viability" may be the basis of all development.
Luo Yunbo introduced the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in the US food safety magazine, which showed that the food enterprises in the survey accounted for 11% of the impact, accounting for 37% of the impact, accounting for 52% of the total impact. The main reasons for the impact are the employment difficulties caused by the epidemic situation and isolation measures, the cancellation of meetings, exhibitions, tourism and other activities, the upstream and downstream impact of the supply chain and logistics. The survey also shows that in the face of difficulties, 5% of enterprises face the risk of immediate bankruptcy, 8% of enterprises can persist for one month, 3% of enterprises can persist for 9-12 months, and about 41% of enterprises can persist for one year. This shows that in the face of the epidemic, the survival ability of enterprises has an important impact on the reshuffle of the food industry and the re formation of the pattern.
In fact, at present, the international economy is highly globalized and interdependent. Suppliers, markets and consumption of each country and region are affected by the world environment. Some experts predict that if China is "the first wave of the epidemic" and Europe and the United States are "the second wave of the epidemic", then South America, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa and other regions are likely to have "the third wave of the epidemic", or even lead to hundreds of millions of infections around the world until the emergence of vaccines. So, under the condition that the whole world has to take a series of measures to fight the epidemic, how to carry out all kinds of international cooperation in China is what the whole food industry needs to consider.
Luo Yunbo summed up the problems that food enterprises may face in the post epidemic era into the following four aspects: first, it is easy for logistics enterprises to return to work and difficult for production enterprises to return to work. The performance of logistics enterprises in the epidemic situation is remarkable, and they have grown up; the industrial chain of prepackaged food enterprises is very long, many difficulties encountered in the process of production recovery are not solved and overcome by the enterprises themselves, but rely on other links in the supply chain; And food enterprises are often labor-intensive enterprises, which rely heavily on labor, so recovery will face greater difficulties. The second is the adjustment of enterprise capacity and asset allocation, such as de stocking and de leveraging. Three, the epidemic situation may lead to stronger and weaker enterprises, and "shuffle" the industry.
Transformation, upgrading and quality improvement are foreseeable trends
"The opportunity for the food industry in this crisis is far greater than the challenge." When it comes to industry opportunities, Luo Yunbo said so. Food is the most important thing for people. People's consumption behavior, way of eating and food selection may be different, but the demand for food remains unchanged. Food enterprises and industries should re analyze the consumption habits, demand and market after the epidemic. The industry should realize that, at the national level, first of all, the fundamentals of economic operation have not changed and the difficulties are temporary. In order to combat the impact of the epidemic, the state may introduce more economic stimulus policies, which will also bring benefits to the industry. Secondly, it forces enterprises to implement a series of national macroeconomic reform policies, such as supply side reform. Such a transformation may allow enterprises to win the opportunity of transformation and upgrading. Finally, the national strategy of "healthy China" has created a bright future for the development of the food industry.
From the perspective of industry, it is also more opportunities than challenges. For example, the market of agricultural products is changing, and agricultural products are developing towards commercialization, modern agriculture and modern commodities. In the past, the rural market and the free market on the street are gradually transiting to the relatively concentrated hypermarkets and supermarkets. In the future, high-quality agricultural products, famous, special and excellent new agricultural products, agricultural products with geographical indications and agricultural products with local characteristics will get more attention and favor. For example, food enterprises will be more sensitive to new technology and market demand, and intelligent Internet support enterprises will win more markets. Intelligent manufacturing, unmanned distribution, online consumption... The epidemic has brought all-round impact on work mode, life style and business management mode, and also bred new opportunities and new space for industry development. With the promotion of artificial intelligence in the food industry, the industry is changing to the direction of "less and better". The improvement of the employment standard is conducive to the employment of middle and high-end talents, and will also improve the overall quality of industry personnel. For example, the special food and health food industry, especially the special food to improve the immune function, will become a new growth point of the food industry. Cultivating a stable consumer market and population is the driving point of such enterprises; the types and quantity of special medical use formula food for special groups will also increase. In the long run, the industrial changes after the epidemic will also bring more strict food supervision, and the food safety of the whole industry chain and the all-round supply chain will be further emphasized.
At the same time, how to maintain the phased results during the epidemic period, such as how to maintain high sales volume of e-commerce in the post epidemic era, how to seize the opportunity of convenient food and frozen food production enterprises, etc., also need attention. Generally speaking, the transformation of food enterprises and industries will become stronger and meet the higher demand of the society for food, which will be the trend of food industry in the post epidemic era.
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FMCG: V-shaped rebound or U-shaped recovery?
January China novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, China's fast consumer goods market has been seriously affected. At present, most parts of the country have gradually returned to work and production. In terms of recovery speed, it largely depends on the characteristics of the category itself and the impact of the category at the peak of the outbreak. Recently, the Kaidu consumer index analyzed 98 FMCG categories and released research results, showing four results: growth, limited impact, V-shaped recovery, and U-shaped recovery.
Growth category: new consumption demand driven by epidemic
The products include hand sanitizer, disinfectant, wet paper towel, chicken essence, monosodium glutamate, spices and other household cooking necessities, instant noodles, instant soup and other instant food products. These categories have an explosive growth in the epidemic, and they are expected to continue to grow in the post epidemic period due to consumption habits. Cooking at home, as an important life scenario in the epidemic, brings many opportunities for growth. Many consumers think it's safer to cook at home than to order takeout or go to a restaurant at risk of infection. After the epidemic, some consumers will continue to maintain these habits. For food brands, we can follow the trend and actively combine the brand with family dining scenes, health and safety, and happy sharing time to occupy the minds of consumers.
Limited impact category: necessities of life are not affected by the epidemic
Pet food, toilet paper, infant milk powder, packaged water and women's care products are all limited impact categories. These categories are necessities of life, while consumers are more inclined to buy online. The proportion of e-commerce sales in the total FMCG has reached 19%, while the e-commerce contribution of such products is as high as 25%. Online ordering and contactless distribution ensure that consumers' needs are met during the epidemic. This year, one of the key issues to be considered for such products is how many new customers have been won by online channels during the epidemic? To what extent will e-commerce channels win new customers and more purchase frequencies in the first quarter? For these necessities, accurate prediction of consumers' next purchase time and promotion of relevant marketing information will be beneficial to both brands and e-commerce Win.
V recovery category: consumption is reduced but can rebound quickly
In the last week of January and the first week of February, sales of the category declined significantly and then rebounded rapidly. Among them, edible oil, normal temperature milk, yoghurt, cake, nutritional health products and washing powder returned to normal after 6 weeks after the biggest decline. The sharp decline in these categories may be due to insufficient supply of local businesses during the peak period of the outbreak, or the fact that many families did not purchase these categories as necessities in large quantities for one to two weeks during the peak period. Once consumers feel confident that shopping or excess inventory has been consumed, these categories will soon resume growth.
The main problem for these categories is that reduced consumption is unlikely to be compensated later this year. Manufacturers need to create more at home consumption scenarios to compensate for the losses suffered during the peak of the epidemic. You can use the holidays later this year (such as May Day holiday and the golden week of the 11th) to promote sales. The consumption of some categories has strong elasticity. The more you buy, the more you will consume (such as biscuits / carbonated drinks). Multi package promotion can promote category growth.
Type u recovery category: consumption reduced, not recovered
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